July 21, 2008

Leaving the Gobal Warming Hacienda

Another member of the consensus speaks his heresy

When I started that job in 1999 the evidence that carbon emissions caused global warming seemed pretty good: CO2 is a greenhouse gas, the old ice core data, no other suspects.

The evidence was not conclusive, but why wait until we were certain when it appeared we needed to act quickly? Soon government and the scientific community were working together and lots of science research jobs were created. We scientists had political support, the ear of government, big budgets, and we felt fairly important and useful (well, I did anyway). It was great. We were working to save the planet.

But since 1999 new evidence has seriously weakened the case that carbon emissions are the main cause of global warming, and by 2007 the evidence was pretty conclusive that carbon played only a minor role and was not the main cause of the recent global warming. As Lord Keynes famously said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

A sea change is coming, look for Skipper Gore to sense the shifting winds soon.  Nothing so simple as admitting he was wrong, no... he will go forward, tacking into the wind this way and that.  It will be Global Warming is causing the cooling, it will be humanity sinning against Gaea, the goddess of the Earth, it will be all model and no reality.  Every storm will be evidence, every flood a rally point.  Every hurricane will be a revival in the next Great Awakening of Man.

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