March 15, 2008

Climate Panel on the hot seat

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) hasn't been predicting the weather very well
Over time, forecasting researchers have compiled 140 principles that can be applied to a broad range of disciplines, including science, sociology, economics and politics.

In a recent NCPA study, Kesten Green and J. Scott Armstrong used these principles to audit the climate forecasts in the Fourth Assessment Report. Messrs. Green and Armstrong found the IPCC clearly violated 60 of the 127 principles relevant in assessing the IPCC predictions. Indeed, it could only be clearly established that the IPCC followed 17 of the more than 127 forecasting principles critical to making sound predictions.
This is why most television weatherman are not on board with the Global Warming craze... they know how complex the Climate of the Earth is and can't predict ten days ahead, let alone 50 and 100 years.

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