November 2, 2008

The Gap

Rasmussen has Senator Obama up by 5 points over McCain.  His analysis, though, is based on a model of about 40 percent of those voting next Tuesday being Democrats, about 33 percent being Republicans and about 27% being Independents.  In 2004, though, the gap between Democrats and Republicans who voted was only 2%, not 7%.

If McCain wins, you can bet the big news folks will cry racism -- but the fact has been, and remains, that the pollsters are over polling Democrats by 5 to 10 percent on most of these polls.  In each of the battleground states where Obama is polling under 50% and McCain is polling only 5 or 6 percent behind... look for McCain to win.

This is no "Bradley Effect," this is a failure on the assumptions of the pollsters, this is a failure of the art of the poll.  This is an unwillingness to recognize that one side, the Democrat side, always polls higher than they perform and one side, the Republicans, always polls lower than they perform -- quite likely due not only to hundreds of thousands of fake registrations, but also to conservative folks being less likely to sit for polls.

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