December 2, 2009

Goodbye Global Warming, Hello Cosmic Rays

We're in the deepest solar minimum in a century.  Goodbye Global Warming...

For
 students
 of
 the 
Sun,
 the
 length
 of
 the 
solar 
cycle, 
which 
lasts 
an 
average 
of 
11 
years 
but 
may 
go 
longer 
or 
shorter, 
has 
proven 
the 
best 
historical 
indicator 
of 
short-term
 climate. 
At 
the 
ends 
of 
these
 solar 
cycles, 
sunspot 
activity 
first 
declines, 
and
 then
 picks
 up 
markedly, 
indicating 
the 
beginning 
of 
a 
new 
cycle. 
The 
precise 
relationship 
between
 the
 sunspots, 
which
are 
thought 
to
 be 
determined 
by
 magnetic 
activity 
within 
the 
Sun, 
and 
the 
energy 
output 
of 
the 
Sun 
are 
not 
known. 
However, 
long‐term
 studies
 of 
the
 historical 
record
 have 
shown 
that 
when 
the 
minimum 
sunspot 
activity 
extend 
beyond 
the
 average
 11 
years, 
significant 
declines 
in
 temperatures 
on 
Earth 
are 
experienced.


And this, from Spaceweather.com:

The sun is in the pits of a very deep solar minimum. Many researchers thought the sunspot cycle had hit bottom in 2008 when the sun was blank 73% of the time. Not so. 2009 is on the verge of going even lower. So far this year, the sun has been blank 75% of the time, and only a serious outbreak of sunspots over the next few weeks will prevent 2009 from becoming the quietest year in a century. Solar minimum continues.

I would have thought that being in such a deep solar minimum would be good for communications, but it turns out (see the chart at the top) that sunspots increase solar winds that brush galactic cosmic rays away from Earth.  Without sunspots, the solar winds are very low and more cosmic rays enter the Earth's atmosphere to interfere with communications.  Read the article on page 28 of World Radio Online for a nice description.

In short, even though the Al Gores and James Hansons of the world have been shouting for years about the sky falling, we've actually had it very good.  What's coming, hard winters, lower food production and poor communications, could be quite an eye opener.

No comments: